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I'll start with a Fox Sports article...



The Run Home: How your club sits, and where they will finish the 2019 NRL season
July 16, 2019
Simon Brunsdon
FOX SPORTS

There’s eight weeks remaining in the 2019 NRL season regular, and eight weeks to decide the finals series.

State of Origin has been won, and done, and now all eyes turn to September footy.

Here’s how your team sits, what their run home looks like, and how we think they’ll fare.

Welcome to The Run Home.

PREDICTED FINAL LADDER
1 Storm
2 Rabbitohs
3 Roosters
4 Raiders
5 Eels
6 Sea Eagles
7 Knights
8 Panthers

9 Sharks
10 Broncos
11 Cowboys
12 Tigers
13 Dragons
14 Warriors
15 Bulldogs
16 Titans

PREDICTED FINALS SERIES
First qualifying final: Storm (1) v Raiders (4)
First elimination final: Eels (5) v Panthers (8)
Second qualifying final: Rabbitohs (2) v Roosters (3)
Second elimination final: Sea Eagles v Knights

YOUR CLUB’S RUN HOME
1 Melbourne Storm (30 points, 216 +/-)

Formline (most recent first): WWWWW

Remaining games: Titans (A), Sea Eagles (H), Broncos (A), Rabbitohs (A), Raiders (H), Titans (H), Sea Eagles (A), Cowboys (H)

Key injuries: Curtis Scott (Round 20), Albert Vete (season)

Analysis: Melbourne have lost just two games for the season, and the scary thing is they’ve clearly got improvement in them. Craig Bellamy fired a warning shot at his playing group after they lost to Cronulla, and it looks like they listened. The Origin period is now over, and Bellamy knows how to have his side primed for the finals. The expected return of Curtis Scott will only make them a stronger team on the eve of finals. On current form it’s hard to see the Storm dropping any of their remaining games.

Predicted run home: WWWWWWWW

Predicted finish: 1st (46 points)

I'm not convinced we will win every remaining game as Fox Sports predicts. For reference, this is the history of Minor Premiers and the total competition points they finished on;

2018 - Roosters 34
2017 - Storm 44
2016 - Storm 42
2015 - Roosters 40
2014 - Roosters 36
2013 - Roosters 36
2012 - Bulldogs 40
2011 - Storm 42
2010 - Dragons 38
2009 - Bulldogs 40
2008 - Storm 38
2007 - Storm 46
2006 - Storm 42
2005 - Eels 34
2004 - Roosters 40
2003 - Panthers 38
2002 - Bulldogs 43
2001 - Eels 44
2000 - Broncos 42
1999 - Sharks 38
1998 - Broncos 41

*Note that the number of games played per year has fluctuated slightly.

We're gonna have a slip up at some point because winning 15 games in a row would be absurd. And when we do it's going to be called the biggest upset of the season despite it probably meaning next to nothing.

I would prefer we lost to a low rank team (like the titans when our Origin crew are rested this weekend) than a genuine finals contender. No need to give our more dangerous opponents any confidence if they meet us in the finals. Bellyache will also want to be a bit conservative in making sure we peak at the right time.

We aren’t going to win every game ..I think we willl proberly win 3 of the next 5

So it looks like we will almost certainly have the Rabbitohs in week 1 of the finals. Should be a huge media build up and a fiesty final given the spite following the last time we met these grubby pr*cks and Shane Richardson taking hypocritical potshots in the media.

In order for any changes to our week 1 opponent, the following would need to occur;

The Rabbitohs overtake the Raiders in third spot and we face the green machine instead.
The Rabbitohs have a 57 point differential to overcome.
Scenario
Raiders lose by 28 (vs Warriors at home) - Highly unlikely
Rabbits win by 29 (vs Roosters at home) - Almost impossible

OR

Manly overtake the Rabbitohs in fourth spot and we face the Sea Eagles instead.
Manly have 1 game and a 33 point differential to overcome.
Scenario
Sea Eagles win by 16 (vs Parra away) - Unlikely
Rabbits lose by 17 - (vs Roosters at home) - Possible

I would love for us to face Manly in week 1 but there's no way in hell I'll be cheering them on. I don't think I would even know how.

Playing Souths would be preferred to playing the Raiders but I think we would fancy our chances against either of them.

sallymay wrote: ↑Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:10 pm We aren’t going to win every game ..I think we willl proberly win 3 of the next 5

Just as long as we win on 6th October 2019. That's what we want and need.