Things to consider

[Freshy]

With the current reports of the possibility of Storm going under and what not, as well as a few people starting to worry about the future of the club. I thought I would point out a few things that will stop Storm from going under.

1) Gerry Ryan and co have pointed out that they would buy out Storm if needs be

2) The NRL's current tv rights deal stands at around 500mil. However with the new deal set to be negotiated next year and now the rise of Storm's market since the last negotiations and the opening up of the Victorian market, the deal will be increased to around 700mil due to the national competition thanks to Storms inclusion. Without Storm and Melbourne, the tv rights deal would significantly drop.

3) Regardless of the tv rights deal, Storm also allows the NRL access to a new business market through which advertising, exposure etc provides the NRL with 20mil currently generated on an annual basis.

4) The Australian government currently provides the NRL with 15mil in annual funds for both professional and grass roots development on the basis the game continues to actively seek to become a national sport. With Melbourne gone, the NRL's funding from the government would be slashed approximately by 30-45%. (The AFL recieves 25mil partly due to the game being considered a national sport)

The collapse of the Storm therefore means a loss of around 470mil for the NRL (roughly 60mil on an annual basis) and would force the NRL into a struggle to financially manage the games current situation and needs. Programs like Toyota Cup, AIS scholarships and grass root development would significantly suffer.

Then you consider the AFL rights deal as they seek 1bil! during the next round of negotiations and why so much you ask? Andrew Demetriou has highlighted that the AFL's ability to make the sport a national one has meant the ability to demand a higher payment.

Compare that to what the NRL will make, and you can see that the NRL may as well get paid peanuts. Without this funding, the NRL in other words is STUFFED and the game could be on the backburner.

[your kettle is black]

2) The NRL's current tv rights deal stands at 30mil. However with the new deal set to be negotiated next year and now the inclusion of Storm since the last negotiations and the opening up of the Victorian market, the deal will be increased to around 50-60mil due to the national competition thanks to Storms inclusion. Without Storm and Melbourne, the tv rights deal would significantly drop.

While I agree with your idea about the negotiating power being affected if the Storm fold, I must point out that the current NRL tv rights deal is not $30 million, it is $500 million for the 2007 - 2012 seasons. Take into consideration the fact that this deal was severely undervalued due to the fact News owns half the NRL and the pay TV broadcaster, FOXTEL, and things look not quite so bad.

The AFL only got $780 million because Packer on his deathbed made Stokes (who had first and last offer rights and couldn't bear to lose) bleed too much money to get the rights. It was a one off situation that was not due to the marketability of the AFL, but gamesmenship between billionaires, one of whom might have been high on painkillers at the time...

[Freshy]

2) The NRL's current tv rights deal stands at 30mil. However with the new deal set to be negotiated next year and now the inclusion of Storm since the last negotiations and the opening up of the Victorian market, the deal will be increased to around 50-60mil due to the national competition thanks to Storms inclusion. Without Storm and Melbourne, the tv rights deal would significantly drop.

While I agree with your idea about the negotiating power being affected if the Storm fold, I must point out that the current NRL tv rights deal is not $30 million, it is $500 million for the 2007 - 2012 seasons. Take into consideration the fact that this deal was severely undervalued due to the fact News owns half the NRL and the pay TV broadcaster, FOXTEL, and things look not quite so bad.

The AFL only got $780 million because Packer on his deathbed made Stokes (who had first and last offer rights and couldn't bear to lose) bleed too much money to get the rights. It was a one off situation that was not due to the marketability of the AFL, but gamesmenship between billionaires, one of whom might have been high on painkillers at the time...

Sorry typed in the wrong figures, you are right about the value of the NRLs current deal. Just checked my references lol

[Freshy]

The AFL only got $780 million because Packer on his deathbed made Stokes (who had first and last offer rights and couldn't bear to lose) bleed too much money to get the rights. It was a one off situation that was not due to the marketability of the AFL, but gamesmenship between billionaires, one of whom might have been high on painkillers at the time...

Yes but consider that the AFL is asking for even more this time around regardless of the Packer incident. Their continuing to build on it which is a problem for the NRL.

As for News, as long as they continue to be in the game, they will under value the NRLs deal which is bad for the game.

[Surandy]

2) The NRL's current tv rights deal stands at around 500mil. However with the new deal set to be negotiated next year and now the inclusion of Storm since the last negotiations and the opening up of the Victorian market, the deal will be increased to around 700mil due to the national competition thanks to Storms inclusion. Without Storm and Melbourne, the tv rights deal would significantly drop.

Huh?

Storm have been around longer than that.

[Freshy]

2) The NRL's current tv rights deal stands at around 500mil. However with the new deal set to be negotiated next year and now the inclusion of Storm since the last negotiations and the opening up of the Victorian market, the deal will be increased to around 700mil due to the national competition thanks to Storms inclusion. Without Storm and Melbourne, the tv rights deal would significantly drop.

Huh?

Storm have been around longer than that.

Sorry what I meant is that Storms market has only recently seen a major rise since the last negotiations. I rushed typing the post as I have to hand all that information in as part of a report in 10minutes 

[Ice]

The AFL only got $780 million because Packer on his deathbed made Stokes (who had first and last offer rights and couldn't bear to lose) bleed too much money to get the rights. It was a one off situation that was not due to the marketability of the AFL, but gamesmenship between billionaires, one of whom might have been high on painkillers at the time...

I think people make far too much of that scenario than what it actually was. I mean people are saying that Packer only upped the price to that amount so the competitor would pay what was percieved to be overs for it, well what would've happened if channel 7 hadn't agreed to that price? Packer would've had to pay that price himself. If he wasn't prepared to willingly pay that much then why would he bid it knowing that there was a very real chance that he may have had to? It's a hell of a risk bidding $780 million for something you didn't want to pay that much for in the "hope" that channel 7 would agree to that price. They could very well have said no and Packer would've had to pay up and they would've got $780 mill either way.

People that hold on to that theory are only the ones that don't want to believe that their rights got a couple hundred mill more than ours or whatever the number is. The fact that the AFL are asking for and will probably get pretty close to a billion this time round suggests that the current price was about right.

[Crippstor]

Agree re the TV rights and the fact that the NRL need us. Remember the 2 highest rating grand finals in history involved us

[simo]

Storm aint going nowhere. Do not worry one bit.

[LESStar58]

Gallop was a big enough stooge to sign off on our last deal with was tragically undervalued. Keep him away from the next round of rights negotiations...

[alimali]

There have been rumours about gerry ryan buying out storm but he hasn't come out and said anything in concrete.  I doubt whether that would eventuate - whether he would want to get financially involved to that extent.

[Ice]

Gerry Ryan was in talk about buying the club pretty much just before the cap drama broke. He said some figures were discussed as well as some terms and conditions but nothing came of it.

[your kettle is black]

I think people make far too much of that scenario than what it actually was. I mean people are saying that Packer only upped the price to that amount so the competitor would pay what was percieved to be overs for it, well what would've happened if channel 7 hadn't agreed to that price? Packer would've had to pay that price himself. If he wasn't prepared to willingly pay that much then why would he bid it knowing that there was a very real chance that he may have had to? It's a hell of a risk bidding $780 million for something you didn't want to pay that much for in the "hope" that channel 7 would agree to that price. They could very well have said no and Packer would've had to pay up and they would've got $780 mill either way.

People that hold on to that theory are only the ones that don't want to believe that their rights got a couple hundred mill more than ours or whatever the number is. The fact that the AFL are asking for and will probably get pretty close to a billion this time round suggests that the current price was about right.

I disagree, and Stokes was on the record saying they couldn't afford NOT to get the rights, no matter the cost, or channel 9 would have the AFL, NRL and cricket all tied up for years.

The proof, (positive or negative) of this will be in the next rights bidding war, and remember that the NRL should have an independant commision by then (we hope).

[Ice]

Kerry Stokes is a very shrewd businessman and i highly doubt he'd have came out publicly to let everyone know (especially his fierce competitor and oppostion bidder) that he would pay any amount it took, that'd just be a ridiculously dumb move to show his hand like that and it just wouldn't have happened. Not to mention there would have to have been a certain number where you'd buy the rights and actually lose money on them and i again highly doubt they'd have surpassed that just to win the rights at "no matter what cost." I mean if you say that they'd have paid any amount for it and Packer wanted them to pay way overs then why didn't he just bid say $880 million instead? Or even a lazy $50 mill over at $730 mill?

Anyway, as mentioned if that arrogant arsehole Demetriou gets his billion dollars or close to it i think it'd be fair to say the current price channel 7 paid would be about right. They didn't pay overs for them, the Channel 9 paid unders for ours from the NRL due to incompetent administration. But anyway i'm happy to agree to disagree.

[Michael :P]

I reckon Ryan would buy us but it would be part of a consortium.